Forecast models cranking out 1 to 3 inches of moisture next week
I’m an optimist, so I’m usually looking for silver linings in our volatile Minnesota weather.
But as we know there are often two sides to our weather. There are upsides and downsides to any given weather pattern depending on your perspective. Different strokes for different weather folks.
Let’s start with some good news. It looks like most of the abnormally dry and drought areas in Minnesota will be erased by late next week. We’ve already made significant progress. Last fall 50 percent of Minnesota was in severe or worse drought, including 23 percent in extreme drought.
This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor (above) shows just 5 percent of Minnesota in severe drought with no areas of extreme drought in Minnesota.
Abundant precipitation the past few months and snowmelt is already pushing the level of Minnesota rivers and lakes higher. Check out the rising St. Croix River at Stillwater.
And even though ice is still covering most lakes, water levels are already beginning to rise. Lake Minnetonka has risen about 2.5 inches this week thanks to heavy rains in the watershed.
Another very wet system appears to be headed for Minnesota next week. Early forecast models suggest a powerful low-pressure storm will head into Minnesota next Wednesday and Thursday.
This system looks to be moisture-laden and could produce even heavier rain and snow than the soaker we saw this week. And it looks like a slow-mover. It could lollygag over us for at least two days. That could wring out some impressive rain and snow totals once again.
NOAA’s American GFS model projects the slow-moving system with a messy mix of rain and snow next Wednesday and Thursday.
The early rad on precipitation totals with next week’s system is eye-opening. Many forecast models suggest another 1 to 2 inches of liquid for much of eastern and northern Minnesota. Some models crank out as much as 3 inches of liquid.
Here’s the Canadian model precipitation output through next Friday.
The early forecast read suggests another mix of rain and snow next week. The American GFS model has mostly rain again for the greater Twin Cities with some snow on the back end. The early look at temperature profiles favors snow again for much of central and northern Minnesota. And there could be more double-digit snowfall totals next week if the current forecast model trends hold.
So the good news is drought may be pretty much erased across Minnesota by late next week. The not-so-good news? Another messy winterish storm system is looking more likely by the day for the middle of next week.
The end of last year’s severe drought across Minnesota is a pretty good silver lining to a chilly wet spring pattern. It sure beats low lakes and forest fires.
Stay tuned.
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