{"id":1726,"date":"2022-03-25T01:20:10","date_gmt":"2022-03-25T01:20:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/linksus.net\/how-the-ukraine-war-could-go-nuclear-politico\/"},"modified":"2022-03-25T01:20:10","modified_gmt":"2022-03-25T01:20:10","slug":"how-the-ukraine-war-could-go-nuclear-politico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/linksus2.linksus.net\/index.php\/2022\/03\/25\/how-the-ukraine-war-could-go-nuclear-politico\/","title":{"rendered":"How the Ukraine war could go nuclear – POLITICO"},"content":{"rendered":"

Russia\u2019s War on Ukraine <\/a>
The prospect is growing all too real that Russia could resort to its deadliest weapons or trigger an accidental nuclear war.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin attends a cabinet meeting via videoconference at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow on Wednesday. | Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP
By Bryan Bender<\/a><\/span>
in an interview with CNN<\/a>, Putin\u2019s chief spokesperson refused to rule out the use of nuclear arms in the conflict.
So far, Biden has sought to dial down the tensions. The Pentagon has not changed the alert status of U.S. nuclear forces and military leaders have publicly said they have not detected Russian actions suggesting they are preparing to use nuclear weapons. The Pentagon also took the unusual step<\/a> early in the conflict of putting off a regularly scheduled test of an intercontinental ballistic missile to avoid fueling nuclear tensions.
Yet as the conflict drags on, and Russia\u2019s conventional forces suffer surprisingly heavy losses while its economy reels, the prospect that Putin might resort to using weapons of mass destruction is increasing. Moscow has already demonstrated that it\u2019s willing to use hypersonic missiles<\/a> for the first time in a war.
With limited contact between the Kremlin and Western capitals, the risk that Moscow\u2019s intentions could be misread with catastrophic consequences will only grow more acute, according to numerous specialists.
\u201cThere has always been a chance of mistakes, but I think the chances are much higher,\u201d said former Sen. Sam Nunn, the longtime chair of the Armed Services Committee and now co-chair of the nonprofit Nuclear Threat Initiative. \u201cI think we are in a different era in terms of blunders.\u201d
It is a high-wire act confronting Biden as he tries to stiffen the spines of NATO countries for what is expected to be a long struggle. Allies are helping Ukraine fend off its bigger aggressor \u2014 including sending more arms<\/a> and U.S. troops to defend NATO\u2019s eastern borders \u2014 while not pushing Putin over the edge.
Russia invaded Ukraine as cooperation between Washington and Moscow on nuclear arms control has been unraveling in recent years. The two countries <\/b>have walked away from several treaties to control the deadliest weapons, including one that outlawed intermediate-range nuclear missiles<\/a> that could threaten Europe.
The only remaining nuclear pact between the two sides is the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which limits deployed strategic weapons to 1,550 each. Biden and Putin agreed last year to extend it until 2026.
But the treaty does not cover any of the thousands of smaller, or \u201cbattlefield,\u201d nuclear weapons in their respective arsenals, including at least 2,000 in Russian stockpiles, according to public estimates<\/a>.
Two Defense Department officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, say they are vigilantly gathering intelligence on Russian military moves for any sign that it might be taking such weapons out of storage or preparing for deployment units trained in nuclear or chemical warfare.
Longtime observers of Russian nuclear policy have been startled at how reckless the Putin regime has been with its nuclear threats compared to leaders in Moscow during the Cold War.
\u201cThe communist party of the Soviet Union was incredibly disciplined about this,\u201d said Rose Gottemoeller, a former undersecretary of state for arms control who has negotiated treaties with Russians and served as NATO deputy secretary general from 2016 to 2019. \u201cThere were only a few Soviet leaders who were allowed to speak about nuclear doctrine and strategy, and they did so in a very carefully scripted way.
\u201cWe are in a more difficult crisis than anyone could have predicted with this constant nuclear saber-rattling that has been going on,\u201d she added. \u201cWe have to take what [Putin\u2019s] people say seriously, because he was serious about invading Ukraine when many of us hoped he would turn away at the last minute.\u201d
The nuclear brinkmanship from Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks is unprecedented: He ordered a snap nuclear war game before the invasion and days later put his nuclear forces on high alert. | Adam Berry\/Getty Images
The dearth of diplomacy and growing distrust only fuels the risk of \u201cmushroom clouds appearing on the battlefield,\u201d Izumi Nakamitsu, United Nations high representative for disarmament affairs, warned on Tuesday.
She hearkened back to the numerous instances during the decades-long standoff between the United States and then-Soviet Union when the two sides nearly came to nuclear blows. But diplomacy \u2014 and a good bit of luck \u2014 prevailed.
\u201cWe are all aware of the close calls and near-misses,\u201d she said at an event<\/a> hosted by The Stimson Center. \u201cUnfortunately, I fear we have forgotten many of those difficult lessons. A simple glance at a headline today can point to how acute nuclear risks have become.\u201d
Those concerns are shared across the spectrum by advocates for nuclear disarmament and those who believe a more robust U.S. nuclear arsenal is needed to deter adversaries.
\u201cI really am worried here that the war is going so badly for Putin \u2026 it raises the possibility of Putin feeling like he needs to escalate to win his way out of this conflict,\u201d said Tim Morrison, a former Trump White House nuclear policy adviser who is now a researcher at the Hudson Institute, a hawkish think tank.
That, he continued, \u201cis right in the wheelhouse of Russian [military] doctrine for a low-yield nuclear or even chemical [weapons] use.\u201d
Morrison added that he fears the situation could unravel to the point where Putin is \u201craising the ante, climbing the rungs of the escalation ladder to make the point to NATO \u2018hey, you guys really need to knock it off with arming the Ukrainians, I will no longer tolerate this.\u2019\u201d
Russia has already ratcheted up the war with its hypersonic missile launch in Ukraine last week, and it has also been accused of dropping phosphorus bombs, which are banned under the Geneva Convention (though using the chemical to obscure troop movements or illuminate targets is not).
\u201cA simple glance at a headline today can point to how acute nuclear risks have become.\u201d
Izumi Nakamitsu, United Nations high representative for disarmament affairs
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday<\/a> the alliance will be assisting Ukraine with specialized equipment in the event of a Russian attack with chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
Gottemoeller said she fears that Moscow\u2019s use of a tactical nuclear weapon is a serious possibility. \u201cPutin is capable of anything,\u201d she said. \u201cHe could declare there is an existential threat from a NATO ally resupplying the Ukrainians.\u201d
Others worry less about Putin ordering a nuclear attack and more about a miscalculation leading to the use of nuclear weapons.
Nunn has been sounding the alarm about the threat of an accidental nuclear exchange as a result of a cyber attack on nuclear command-and-control systems \u2014 including by malign actors not directly involved in the conflict who could be confused for a nuclear adversary.
\u201cThird parties, third countries, might interfere in terms of command-and-control or warning systems,\u201d he said of potential hackers. \u201cInterference in command-and-control could be taken in this kind of atmosphere as probably a deliberate act.\u201d
Nunn successfully lobbied Congress last year<\/a> to require the Pentagon to conduct a \u201cfailsafe review\u201d of the U.S. nuclear arsenal \u201cto prevent cyber-related and other risks that could lead to the unauthorized or inadvertent use of nuclear weapons as the result of an accident, misinterpretation, miscalculation, terrorism, unexpected technological breakthrough, or deliberate act.\u201d
Further complicating the task of U.S. and allied commanders to decipher Russian intentions, said Morrison, is the fact that so many Russian battlefield systems are also designed to unleash both conventional and nuclear or chemical warheads.
In other words, it could be exceedingly difficult to know when the Russian military has decided to pursue a nuclear option.
\u201cOne of the problems with Russian nuclear forces is how many of their systems are dual-capable,\u201d Morrison said. \u201cSo you\u2019re not going to necessarily know if the S-300 or that long-range [missile or artillery] battery is packing a conventional warhead or a nuclear one.\u201d
If U.S. military leaders detected Russian nuclear maneuvers, Nunn said, Biden may have no choice but to act more aggressively to deter Moscow, <\/b>including putting American nuclear forces on alert.
\u201cIf you\u2019d seen bombers in the air, all sorts of activities in the nuclear forces, it would have been a different proposition,\u201d Nunn said. \u201cThe risk of nuclear use is in my view higher through a mistake or blunder than through intent. But nevertheless blunders get more likely when nuclear weapons are put on alert.\u201d
The Nuclear Threat Initiative last week outlined a hypothetical<\/a> but horrific scenario to underscore how the war in Ukraine could go wrong. In a simulation based on historical examples, the current conflict escalated with the detonation of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and quickly spiraled into a nuclear holocaust.
The scenario lays out a chain of events \u2014 the downing of an American spy plane by accident, the misreading of counter actions, cyber attacks that further sow confusion, and leaders with very little time to react \u2014 that result in the unthinkable: an all-out nuclear war between the United States and Russia.
\u201cOver the course of the next hour,\u201d it chillingly details, \u201c82 million Americans are killed with allied countries faring similarly. Most die instantly, while more will die of radiation poisoning over the coming days and weeks.\u201d
There is also nearly uniform agreement that any glimmers of hope that the Biden administration might reach further agreements with Putin to rein in nuclear armaments have been dashed.
\u201cProspects of renewed arms control are very low,\u201d said Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation who worked on arms control agreements in the Soviet and Russian foreign ministries.
He said one reason is now very personal. He believes a renewal of nuclear talks would likely require a summit between Biden and Putin, or at least their top diplomats, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
\u201cBy calling Putin a war criminal,\u201d Sokov said, \u201cBiden closed off the prospect of a summit, whether in person or a call. Same for Blinken-Lavrov. These things will stand in the way and, at best, delay arms control.\u201d
But some who support nuclear disarmament say the Ukraine crisis only strengthens their argument for why these weapons are destabilizing and steps must be pursued to eliminate them around the world.
\u201cAdvocates for nuclear weapons have long argued that they keep the peace, acting as a stabilizing force,\u201d said Stephen Young, the senior Washington representative for the Union of Concerned Scientists. \u201cPutin is turning that belief on its head, using the threat of nuclear war to deter others from intervening against his forces in Ukraine\u201d
\u201cIn other words,\u201d Young added, \u201cRussia\u2019s nuclear weapons are enabling this war.\u201d
He lauded Biden\u2019s efforts at nuclear deescalation in the face of Putin\u2019s threats. \u201cBut it isn\u2019t enough,\u201d Young said. \u201cThe president should take nuclear weapons off the table, and make clear that the sole purpose of U.S. nuclear forces is to deter or respond to a nuclear attack on the United States or its allies.\u201d
Such dramatic changes to undo decades of American nuclear policy, which the Biden administration was not expected to make even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are widely viewed as more remote than ever given the current crisis.
For now, Nunn believes the most urgent task is to find a way to stop the shooting in Ukraine.
\u201cThe ceasefire is in my view the most imperative arms control right now,\u201d he said in an interview. \u201cIf we do not have a ceasefire, escalation becomes more likely.\u201d
He recently organized a joint declaration by former U.S. and European leaders, including one of Putin\u2019s ex-foreign ministers, Igor Ivanov, calling for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.
They highlighted the recent firefight at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as a reminder of \u201chow nuclear catastrophe can quickly rise to the surface in the \u2018fog of war.\u2019\u201d
\u201cThe first and most essential step toward reducing the risks of a consequential accident, mistake, or miscalculation is a ceasefire to end the unacceptable and unjustifiable loss of human lives, including innocent civilians,\u201d they wrote.
This image made from a video released by Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant shows bright flaring object landing in grounds of the nuclear plant in Enerhodar, Ukraine Friday, March 4, 2022. | Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant via AP
But Sokov said he worries that even with an end to the current hostilities, the nuclear stakes will remain historically high, especially if Putin believes his regime is at stake.
\u201cI expect the post-war settlement to be a more dangerous period than the war itself,\u201d Sokov said in an email. \u201cIt is pretty clear that the U.S. will not remove sanctions. In that situation, Moscow may conclude that reliance on nuclear weapons is the only means of avoiding the fate of Iraq, post-Saddam.\u201d
That is \u201call the more so,\u201d he added, \u201csince its conventional forces will have been depleted and not judged efficient after the war. I expect a serious confrontation with a strong nuclear component.\u201d
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Russia\u2019s War on Ukraine The prospect is growing all too real that Russia could resort to its deadliest weapons or trigger an accidental nuclear war. Russian leader Vladimir Putin attends a cabinet meeting via videoconference at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow on Wednesday. | Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP By Bryan Bender […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":869,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/linksus2.linksus.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1726"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/linksus2.linksus.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/linksus2.linksus.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/linksus2.linksus.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/869"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/linksus2.linksus.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1726"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/linksus2.linksus.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1726\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/linksus2.linksus.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1726"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/linksus2.linksus.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1726"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/linksus2.linksus.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1726"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}